What an eventful season it’s been so far. We’ve had Hamlin’s inability to speak at the auction. We’ve had the whole league bidding 100mill on Pogba. We’ve had some very Josh-like benchings from several managers (mostly Josh). We’ve had the best Deadline Day ever. We’ve had the worst rebrand in history (you know who you are), and the worst ever start to a league season (cheers Bond). We’ve had Smalling-gate. We’ve added WordPress and we’ve added the Fantrax Pools. We’ve had last minute wins, and last minute Survival eliminations (Allen assist –> Sigurdsson assist –> Allen assist).
And as if all of that wasn’t enough, we’ve got an unbelievable title race on our hands. Just 1 game separates the top eight. EIGHT. These are extraordinary times that we live in. So the question we are looking to answer this week is: Is this the closest title race ever? I’ve got a record of every Fantrax result ever, so we can check. Lets go to the numbers.
The league leader has already changed eight times this season, with four different leaders. Here are the deets:
|Team fisher8080||1 to 2|
|Ozone Athletic||3 to 4|
|Boz’s Pandas||7 to 8|
|The Groovy Penguins||9|
|The Groovy Penguins||11|
So how does this compare to previous seasons. Well, in both Season 1 and 2, the lead changed only six times the entire season. We’ve topped that already. So you could argue that the first 11 weeks of this season are already more competitive than the whole 38 weeks from the last two years. Here are the other seasons:
|FC Salvidge-a-point||2 to 9|
|Ozone Athletic||10 to 19|
|FC Salvidge-a-point||20 to 25|
|FC Salvidge-a-point||27 to 38|
|Boz’s Pandas||1 to 3|
|Peperami Barmy Army||4 to 7|
|Ozone Athletic||8 to 10|
|Peperami Barmy Army||11 to 27|
|Hammerhead Sharks||28 to 34|
|Peperami Barmy Army||35 to 38|
Now in terms of the league table itself. We’ve established that there is just one win between first and eighth. The league leader (Mills) is on 21 points, with the eighth placed Hammerheads on 18 points.
|1||The Groovy Penguins||21||406|
|2||Elm Grove Elite||21||376|
|3||Peperami Barmy Army||21||364|
|5||Chris Talling’s XI||18||396|
In both of the previous seasons, after Week 11 there was a 9 point gap between 1st and 8th. The top 2 (Season 1) and top 3 (Season 2) had an extra win at this point, while 5th-8th (Season 1) and 7th-8th (Season 2) had an extra loss. So we can conclude that the best teams have got worse, and the mid-table teams have got better, all of which contributes to a wide open title race.
Another point to note is how fewer fantasy points have been scored by the league’s best teams compared to last season’s champions PBA. Peperami (446) had 40 more points than the Penguins have got currently (406). We can’t really compare Season 1 because only pure assists counted that year, so less points were on offer. But we can compare the league leader’s score as a percentage of the total points scored in the league. Ozone had 9.6% in S1, with Peperami in at 9.1% in S2. The Penguins have currently scored 8.2% of all fantasy points. A 1% drop doesn’t seem like much at first glance. But if the entire league had all scored exactly the same points, the joint leader would be on 7.1%. So, if you’re still following at this point (and I wouldn’t blame you if you weren’t), the difference between the league leader and perfect equality has halved compared to last season. All of which supports our idea of a competitive title race.
Here are the historic Week 11 Tables from the archives. Incidentally, Mills has gone from worst team to best team in two years:
|3||Elm Grove Elite||22||355|
|4||Peperami Barmy Army||18||331|
|1||Peperami Barmy Army||24||446|
|9||Elm Grove Elite||13||378|
|12||The Groovy Penguins||12||295|
Who do you think will win the title this year? Your guess is as good as mine.
Your friendly Commish.
P.S. I’ve arbitrarily chosen the above logo for Team Fisher8080 because finding him on Fantrax is more unlikely than Finding Nemo.